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Italian GP Betting Tips & Preview

Written September 3rd 2019

Italian GP F1 Betting Tips & Preview

F1 heads to Italy for the final European race of the season and Charles Leclerc will be looking to follow his maiden victory last time out in Belgium with another triumph at Monza. The passionate Tifosi will be hoping either him or Vettel will be able to provide Ferrari’s first win here since 2010 when Fernando Alonso won from pole position. 21.co.uk’s resident tipster is here to give you his take on whether they will with his latest F1 betting preview.

Here are our F1 betting tips for the 2019 Italian grand prix.

Italian Grand Prix Formula 1 Betting Tips

Italian Grand Prix Qualifying Tip

Charles Leclerc Fastest Qualifier - 1/1

Monza is effectively F1’s equivalent of a drag race with only 11 corners dotted between long straights and even then most of them are at full throttle. Like in Belgium this should favour the Ferrari meaning either Vettel or Leclerc could be on pole given the Ferrari’s straight line speed advantage over Red Bull and Mercedes. This prediction is on the basis it stays dry - although rain is forecast across the weekend. If it is dry then the car on pole will probably be the one that gets the tow - an advantage surprisingly given to Kimi Raikonnen last year. Meanwhile, Leclerc is on a run of out-qualifying Vettel six consecutive times, although some of that is down to reliability, and even though Vettel has three poles around here we feel as though Leclerc will have enough to make it back-to-back pole positions at F1 betting odds of 1/1.

Italian Grand Prix Winner Tip

Lewis Hamilton To Win - 7/4

Leclerc converted his pole into a win in Belgium but given there is a 90% chance of rain on Sunday (at the time of writing) he might struggle to do similar in Italy. Verstappen has an engine penalty which means he will start at the back of the grid so even if it rains he will struggle to win. This leaves Hamilton as clear favourite in our opinion due to his record in wet weather races. Even if it fails to rain we could have a similar situation to Belgium where the Mercedes has superior race pace but given there are fewer corners this seems less likely this time out. You can back this tip at F1 odds of 7/4.

Where is the Value?

Daniil Kvyat Top 10 - 17/4

Daniil Kvyat can consider himself unlucky not to have been promoted to the Red Bull seat in place of Pierre Gasly during the Summer break. Considering the criticism of him at the end of 2017, it has been a good response from the Russian this year including an outstanding podium in the rain in Hockenheim. He took engine penalties last time out at Spa and still managed to finish a credible 7th so given the engine penalties others are taking this should be a good opportunity to qualify in the top 10 and then stay there during the race. A top 10 finish for Kvyat is available at 17/4, which is a good value F1 bet in our opinion.

Long Shot of the Weekend

Alexander Albon Podium Position - 39/4

Alex Albon took advantage of his promotion the Red Bull senior team last week finishing 5th after starting at the back of the grid. This was arguably the best finish he could have hoped to achieve given that Spa isn’t the Red Bull’s strongest track. Verstappen’s grid penalties mean that he should be able to qualify at least 5th at Monza. It only requires two of the Ferrari or Mercedes’ to have issues for him to be in with a great shout of a podium in that case. At F1 odds of 39/4 this may well be worth a punt and this is our long shot of the weekend for the Italian Grand Prix.

Other Italian Grand Prix Bets of Interest

Carlos Sainz Top 6 Finish - 8/5

Carlos Sainz has had a good season. Comfortably in 7th place in the championship even with some poor reliability, he has demonstrated why McLaren were right to give him a 2 year contract after he left the Red Bull driving program. Given Verstappen’s penalty there could be an opportunity for a driver to finish in the top 6 regardless of whether there are issues for those in front. Norris would have easily held off Albon in Belgium in a similar situation but for reliability and so we feel either McLaren could finish in the top 6 here. Norris is available at 23/20 but we feel it could be Sainz at F1 betting odds of 8/5 who achieves this.

Lance Stroll Top 10 Finish - 5/4

Monza can probably be considered Lance Stroll’s best track. The Canadian driver started on the front row in 2017 in a Williams converting it into a credible 7th position during the race. Last year he scored points again in a very uncompetitive car meaning that out of two visits to Italy in F1 he has scored points twice. Given the Racing Point’s strong performance in a straight line we see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to do the same this time out. This bet is available at odds of 5/4.

The Italian GP F1 Betting Tips and Predictions

Here are all of 21.co.uk’s F1 tips for the Italian Grand Prix.

Market Tip Odds
Fastest Qualifier Charles Leclerc 1/1
Race Winner Lewis Hamilton 7/4
Top 10 Finish Daniil Kvyat 17/4
Podium Position Alexander Albon 39/4
Top 6 Finish Carlos Sainz 8/5
Top 10 Finish Lance Stroll 5/4

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*All odds from 21.co.uk’s online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.

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