Written September 24th 2019
Russian GP F1 Betting Tips & Preview
Fresh from a Singapore Grand Prix that saw Ferrari upset the form book and claim their first 1-2 of the season, F1 is heading to the Sochi Autodrom in Russia. It provides an opportunity for Ferrari to claim their fourth win in a row since the Summer break. While the philosophy of the car means their wins in Belgium and Italy were almost expected, their win in Singapore was testament to an extensive upgrade package that appears to have solved the car’s trouble with cornering. The Marina Bay circuit is a unique track however, so the real test of whether theirs is the car to beat will come here on a track which tests all aspects of the car and is more representative of the rest of the calendar. Mercedes and Red Bull will be looking to make sure they don’t have it all their own way though and you can find out if we think they will stop them as 21.co.uk’s resident tipster returns with his take on the action.
Here are our F1 betting tips for the 2019 Russian Grand Prix.
Russian Grand Prix Formula 1 Betting Tips
Russian Grand Prix Qualifying Tip
This is tough to call. While Red Bull can probably be discounted due to engine penalties meaning that they will set up further back for the race, Ferrari and Mercedes will probably be evenly matched. Mercedes will be looking for a first pole since Germany and their car should be competitive in qualifying here. While Hamilton can never be discounted from qualifying, Bottas has an excellent record in Sochi. He has never been out-qualified by a teammate and claimed pole here last year. Ferrari should also be tough to beat in qualifying having taken the last three pole positions. Vettel should have renewed confidence following his victory in Singapore, but with Leclerc having claimed the last three poles, we’re backing him to make it four in a row. This is available at F1 betting odds of 29/20 but we wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those four qualify fastest - the threat of rain only adds to the uncertainty and could make qualifying seem something like online roulette.
Russian Grand Prix Winner Tip
While qualifying is likely to be uncertain, the race itself should favour Mercedes. They seem to have a superior car on Sundays and have only lost the last three races due to qualifying behind the Ferraris. While this could happen again on Sunday we feel as though Russia will be much more suited to providing overtaking opportunities for the Mercedes drivers. It has more corners than Monza which should allow them to close up, but still has the long straights required for passing which were missing in Singapore. Surprisingly perhaps, we’ve gone for Bottas to win here. As previously stated, he has never been out-qualified by a teammate here and if that continues, he may well find himself on the front row. Add to that him winning in 2017 and in 2018, but for team orders, and we feel that he could beat Hamilton in Sochi. You can back this at F1 odds of 21/4. If you want to play it safer you could consider backing this each way at 1/3 odds for the first two places. It would still provide a profit if Bottas finished second.
Where is the Value?
The top 10 market appears to have little value this week with most drivers coming in under evens so we’ve taken a look at a different F1 betting market in the search for value. The race winning margin market is a fairly unique market in F1 betting, it’s F1’s equivalent of the winning distance bet that can be found in horse racing betting or the winning margin market in football betting. It is the amount of time you think the race winner will be ahead of second place, regardless of the cars in those positions. The race winning margin in both of the last two years in Sochi, and in the last three races in 2019, has been under 4 seconds. With the Ferraris and Mercedes likely to be closely matched we feel this bet has a good chance of coming in and at betting odds of 9/5 we think this is decent value.
Long Shot of the Weekend
Our winner tip probably qualifies as a long shot tip but we’re going to provide another tip anyway. With four drivers in with a shout of pole position we feel as though betting on the drivers who qualify third or fourth might be worth a punt. By following this bet you are likely to be backing two of Leclerc, Vettel, Hamilton and Bottas which means you’re likely to have two serious threats for the race victory. Bottas achieved his first win from third on the grid here in 2017 and pole position has only won twice in the five previous iterations of this race. If the threat of rain comes to fruition this bet will probably become more likely due to the added uncertainty. At F1 betting odds of 17/4 it may be worth a look.
Other Russian Grand Prix Bets of Interest
Giovinazzi has performed well in recent races considering the pressure he was under for a poor first half of the season. While he was always going to have a tough time of it when placed next to a man of Raikkonen’s experience, having only four points compared to Kimi’s 31 will probably be considered a disappointment. But with two points finishes in his last two races the Italian driver is beginning to show decent form. We’re backing him to make it three in a row as Sochi should suit the Alfa Romeo car, with odds of 43/20 available.
With both Red Bulls consigned to five place grid penalties, this Grand Prix provides a good chance for Mclaren to score some big points in the battle to finish fourth. Both of their drivers should be able to qualify in a position to start the race in the top 6. Given their superior race pace to the rest of the midfield they should be able to stay there as well, as long as they stay out of trouble and can make a large enough gap to the Red Bulls before they clear the rest. The only question after that is which driver to back. We’ve gone with Sainz to finish in the top 6 rather than Norris. While both are possible, Sainz is available at odds of 6/4 compared to the slightly shorter price of 7/5 on Norris. Sainz also has five top six finishes so far this season compared to Lando’s two if you’re looking for another reason to choose the Spaniard on this F1 betting market.
The Russian GP F1 Betting Tips and Predictions
Here are all of 21.co.uk’s F1 tips for the Russian Grand Prix.
|Fastest Qualifier||Charles Leclerc||29/20|
|Race Winner||Valterri Bottas||21/4|
|Race Winning Margin||Under 4 Seconds||9/5|
|Grid Position of Winner||3rd or 4th Place||17/4|
|Top 10 Finish||Antonio Giovinazzi||43/20|
|Top 6 Finish||Carlos Sainz||6/4|
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*All odds from our online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.
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