Written November 1st 2019
US GP F1 Betting Tips & Preview
The final back-to back race weekend of the season concludes at the US GP, with Hamilton on the verge of confirming his sixth world championship. The title maths at last weekend's Mexican GP meant that his victory wasn’t enough for official confirmation, but he now only needs an eighth place finish or better in Austin, regardless of Bottas’ result, to wrap it up. On the other hand, the Finn has to win to stand any chance of taking his title bid to Brazil. He will have to contend with more than his teammate for victory though. Ferrari eventually succeeded in making it six poles in a row after the summer break, but only after Verstappen was handed a three place grid penalty post qualifying. Any of the Ferraris, Red Bulls or Mercedes could have come out on top on race day, which makes giving tips for F1 betting more difficult than it may have been in the past. Nevertheless, our resident tipster is back with his take on the action.
Here are our F1 betting tips for the 2019 US Grand Prix.
US Grand Prix Formula 1 Betting Tips
US Grand Prix Qualifying Tip
We can see qualifying being a six way shootout, with any of the Mercedes, Ferraris or Red Bull drivers capable of pole. There are two long straights at the Circuits of the Americas which Ferrari should dominate, but there are also multiple fast sweeping corners throughout the track which should favour Mercedes. The Prancing Horse has improved considerably in this area in recent weeks though, which has led to them having a clean sweep on pole position in the last six races. We can see them making that seven in a row this weekend and are also backing Leclerc to clinch the pole position trophy as well. The Monegasque driver has seven poles so far this season, three more than any other driver with only three races remaining, and has also clinched the qualifying head to head against his teammate. It is an excellent return in his debut season at the Scuderia and he is likely to lead the team in the future. You can back him to claim pole this weekend at odds of 6/4.
US Grand Prix Winner Tip
We could take our opening line about qualifying and apply similar logic in trying to determine a race winner. Any of six drivers could have won in Mexico and the same could be said about this race also. There is, however, starting to be a consistent theme emerging about the competitive order of the weekend since the summer break. The last three grands prix have seen Ferrari start on pole, but Mercedes claim the race win. We can see something similar occurring in Austin, with the Mercedes car having better race pace being a consistent theme of the 2019 season. It will be important for their drivers to make sure they are on the first two rows at least though, with any Red Bull getting ahead of them on track likely to be hard to overtake without strategy coming into play. You can get Hamilton at F1 betting odds of 9/5 to win or Bottas at 17/2. Alternatively, you can back either of them with the winning team market at odds of 6/5, which is our tip come raceday.
Where is the Value?
The search for any perceived value in F1 betting invariably leads us to the top 10 finish market, but with 11 of the 20 drivers below evens and modern Formula 1 cars having improved reliability compared to their predecessors, it is becoming increasingly more difficult to find any. We seem to back Toro Rosso drivers on a regular basis to finish top 10 because of this and this week is no different. We’ve gone for Gasly to finish in the points rather than Kvyat, with the Frenchman having four points finishes in his six races since returning to the team compared to the Russian’s two, but they could both score points here. Any they do score could be crucial for their team in the constructors’ championship. Toro Rosso are currently locked on 64 points apiece with Racing Point and they are both only 9 points behind Renault. With an element of the prize money awarded on finishing position, any points that can be gained between now and the end of the season could go a long way to helping the development of next years car. We’re backing Gasly to make it three top 10 finishes in a row, and in the process help his team on that count, at F1 odds of 8/5.
Long Shot of the Weekend
Our long shot tip this week sees us look at the first retirement market again. The only difference to last week is that we’re looking at the first team to retire, rather than the first driver to retire. At last year’s US Grand Prix it was Fernando Alonso who had to retire his Mclaren car first after contact with Lance Stroll. The double World Champion isn’t on the grid this year as his focus turns to the Triple Crown of Motorsport, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mclaren retire first again this year. Both of their cars seem to hit issues on a Sunday on a regular basis, with a lot of it not down to the drivers themselves. They have suffered multiple reliability issues across the season and, more often than not, other cars seem to make contact with them, rather than the other way round. A Mclaren has had to retire at 9 of the 18 races so far this season, including a double retirement at Spa (although Norris was classified on that occasion). In addition, one of their cars has retired first in five of those races. You can get them at odds of 12/1 to make it six first retirements for the season this weekend.
Other US Grand Prix Bets of Interest
We are taking a look at one of the more obscure markets this week, with the qualification winning margin being one of the few F1 markets we haven’t mentioned so far in our betting tips. It is similar to the winning margin market found in football betting, but rather than betting on the margin you think one driver will qualify fastest by, you instead bet on the winning margin for whichever driver qualifies first. There are three possible outcomes to choose from: under 0.1 seconds, between 0.1 and 0.2 seconds and over 0.2 seconds. For this week’s tip, we’ve gone for under 0.1 seconds, as we feel as though qualifying will be extremely close given the nature of the circuit and it would be a repeat of the 2018 results, which saw Hamilton qualify fastest by just 0.061 seconds. You can back this at F1 odds of 6/4.
Kimi Raikkonen claimed his first win since the opening race of the 2013 season here last year. The Finn took advantage of starting second on the grid which gave him the inside line into turn 1 and enabled him to pass polesitter Hamilton for the race lead. Sebastian Vettel also led after the first lap in similar circumstances, with the run to the first turn meaning that starting second on the grid may be preferential to first at the Circuit of the Americas. There is also the starting tyre element to this, with any driver on the soft tyres likely to have an advantage over the mediums when the lights go out. We could see the driver starting in second winning again, especially if one of the Mercedes are able to get into that position, as their race pace is likely to be superior to their rivals. This bet is available at odds of 5/2.
US GP F1 Betting Tips and Predictions
Here are all of 21.co.uk’s F1 tips for the US Grand Prix.
|Fastest Qualifier||Charles Leclerc||6/4|
|Top 10 Finish||Pierre Gasly||8/5|
|First Team To Retire||Mclaren||12/1|
|Qualification Winning Margin||Under 0.1 Seconds||6/4|
|Grid Position of Winner||2nd Place||5/2|
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