St Patrick’s Thursday Betting Tips
The third day of Cheltenham will soon be upon us and look no further for your betting tips. We’re in for a cracker of a day with some very competitive races ahead of us. Will we see Paisley Park continue his unbelievable form? Who will win in the head to head battle between Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation? Hopefully we have the answers here for you. If you back any horse that doesn’t run don’t worry as we offer Non Runner No Bet here at 21.co.uk.
JLT Novices Chase
The opening race of the penultimate day at the Cheltenham Festival sees Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation face off for a third time this season. Defi defeated Colin Tizzard’s course winner in February but the result was reversed when they met in January. Most of the form of the horses here will have come from small fields, and this will be a much bigger test of stamina and jumping than the majority are used to. Ireland have dominated this race since its inception in 2011, winning seven out of eight races however, we think it could be England’s year. Only one winner has come in at a double figured price in the race’s history. We expect this year to follow the trend with Defi Du Seuil’s renaissance this season, after a lengthy spell on the sidelines with injury. Both of his wins have come on soft ground and with the current Cheltenham forecast we think he will go well again at 3/1*.
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
The Pertemps Final looks wide open this year, offering another conundrum for punters with the betting currently 11/2 the field. Jockey Davy Russell has won this race three years running now and could team up with last year’s winning trainer Gordon Elliott again. Russell gave Delta Work a glorious ride last year and he could be looking to do the same on favourite Sire Du Berlais. Elliott’s seven-year-old looked impressive when coming sixth over distance at Leopardstown in December but only one favourite has won this in the last 10 years. Second favourite Shamburu Shujaa has impressed at Chepstow in January and February and we think he can handle the step up in class here. With Champion Jockey Richard Johnson on board 17/2* is an attractive price. If you’re looking for an each way bet then Cap York at 12/1* could be the one for you. We hadn’t seen Noel Meade’s seven year old for almost two years until December and he’s looked impressive since his return. Three runs in Ireland over distance have seen him win twice, despite some questionable jumping. If he can improve his jumping we think he can go close.
The Ryanair Chase is a tricky one this year, with so many declarations who may not run. Willie Mullins currently holds the answers with joint favourites Footpad and Min. One is expected to race here and the other will face off against Altior in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, which goes where remains to be seen. With this in mind we’ve looked elsewhere and think Frodon at 6/1 could be value. Paul Nicholls has taken some criticism for the decision to send Frodon here instead of the Gold Cup and Nicholls still insists the horses options are open but it’s widely believed this is where he will race. Frodon has already won over course and distance this season, looking mightily impressive while doing so. Again, if you fancy something bigger here, The Storyteller looks an interesting contender. Some of the eight-year-old’s best performances have come on soft ground, including a win in the Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last year. He hasn’t performed as well this season but his runs have come on ground and trips that don’t suit and he could snatch a place at 18/1*.
The highlight of day three at Cheltenham is the Stayers Hurdle, with favourite Paisley Park set for his biggest challenge yet. Emma Lavelle’s seven-year-old has been one of the stars of the season, winning in graded company at Cheltenham and Ascot. Many will be hoping that Faugheen “The Machine” can become the first horse over nine years old to win the race in the last 20 renewals. Willie Mullins has been increasingly positive about his chances in this race and he will push Paisley Park all the way. However, in the last 20 years, 10 winners of this race have won either the Cleeve Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham or the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot earlier in the season. Paisley Park has won both impressively this campaign and we think he will win again at 13/8*.
Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate
The Stable Plate is another complex puzzle on day three of Cheltenham and it’s currently 6/1 the field. Nicky Henderson’s Janika heads the betting at 6/1* but only three favourites have won this race in the last twenty years. Nick Williams will be hoping Siruh Du Lac can make it four out of four for the season with Lizzie Kelly on board. He beat Janika over course and distance in January and we think history will repeat itself here and you can back him at 17/2*.
Mares Novices Hurdle
One of the newest races at Cheltenham, having only been established in 2016, sees Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson face off yet again with Posh Trish and Epatante. Willie Mullins has won this race all three years since its inception, but that trend doesn’t look likely to continue this year. Henderson sends red hot favourite Epatante here and he will be hoping to win the race for a first time. Henderson is a Cheltenham specialist with 60 winners at the festival, 17 more than any other English trainer and all three previous races have seen favourites win, despite them all being fairly short prices. Epatante has shown previous form on heavy and soft ground, which is the current prediction for Cheltenham. This horse is highly regarded in the Henderson camp and we think that she’ll win again here at 6/4*.
Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The final race of day three at Cheltenham is the Kim Muir, a race that is sometimes seen as a stepping stone for the Grand National. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this race return to Ireland this year with Gordon Elliott having two huge chances. Current favourite Measureofmydreams went close in this race two years ago, coming third, and has race specialist Jamie Codd on board. Codd has won four of the last 10 in the Challenge Cup, so it’s easy to see why this horse is favourite. Elliott has also entered Its All Guesswork, current third favourite. Only one winner in the last ten years has been priced above 16/1 which is also worth considering. Despite this we think it could be worth looking elsewhere here and Sky Pirate at 17/2* looks an interesting contender. He put in a great round of jumping in his last appearance at Cheltenham in November, mounting a strong challenge before being brought down by a faller two out. His last race in February saw him come fourth, but he wasn’t disgraced behind Captain Cattistock and may have needed the run out. Sky Pirate has all the hallmarks of a useful stayer and we think he could rediscover form here at 17/2*.
*All odds from 21.co.uk’s online sportsbook are correct at the time of writing.
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