Written October 11th 2019
Japanese GP F1 Betting Tips & Preview
For the first time since 2006 a Honda powered team is heading to their home race in Japan with a race victory to show for their season. It is just reward for a company that has endured a tough time since their return to F1 as an engine supplier in 2015 and they will be hoping that Verstappen or Albon can at least reach the podium in front of their loyal supporters.
However, the recent formbook suggests that might prove difficult with Ferrari in good form since the summer break having picked up three wins out of an available four. Mercedes should also be there or thereabouts having won last time out in Sochi - although that was probably more down to the unreliability of the Ferrari than anything else. The question remains, who are we backing to reign supreme at Suzuka? Find out as 21.co.uk’s Casino resident tipster returns with his take on the F1 betting action.
Here are our F1 betting tips for the 2019 Japanese Grand Prix.
Japanese Grand Prix Formula 1 Betting Tips
Japanese Grand Prix Qualifying Tip
While they will be hoping otherwise, Red Bull will probably struggle to qualify fastest at Suzuka. The first sector should favour Mercedes, while the last sector is likely to be dominated by Ferrari. The middle sector is likely to be close between the two. With Verstappen’s raw speed you can never rule him out, especially if the typhoon that is forecast to be heading to the track this weekend causes a wet qualifying session, but we feel this will be between Ferrari and Mercedes. As for which driver will come out on top we’re backing Hamilton to claim his first pole since Hockenheim. The one area where the Mercedes definitely has the beating of the Ferrari is high speed sweeping corners and Suzuka’s first sector is full of them. While Ferrari will gain time in the third sector we feel they will lose too much on the corners to claim pole but it should be close. Leclerc has claimed the last four poles so Hamilton will have to be at his best, but we feel he’ll add to the poles he achieved here in 2017 and 2018. This bet is available at F1 odds of 6/5.
Japanese Grand Prix Winner Tip
Whoever claims pole at Suzuka will be strong favourite for the race with the winner having started on pole in the last three years in Japan. Aside from the usual mitigating circumstances in an F1 race, there are two factors that are likely to stop that being the case. The first is the weather. As previously mentioned, a typhoon is likely to affect the weekend, meaning rain could play a huge part in deciding the outcome of the race - being on the right tyre at the right time could be key. There is also the internal politics at Ferrari which has been a flash point in the last two races. While we are a big fan of all casino games here at 21.co.uk, the games between the two drivers are not helping the team and could cost them in future races. If they do end up close together on track there could be action. As for our tip, we’re going for Hamilton to win. This is currently available at F1 betting odds of 10/11 but our advice would be to wait until after a potentially chaotic qualifying to place a bet on this F1 market.
Where is the Value?
With Honda also supplying Red Bull’s junior team Toro Rosso they will be hoping that they can get all four drivers into the points - a feat they managed at Monaco this year. While Gasly will have been disappointed to have been demoted from the senior team, his performances for Toro Rosso have been a good response and back up his claims that the Red Bull car didn’t suit his driving style. He has managed points finishes in two of his four races and was unlucky not to score points in Italy as well. We are backing him to get points here at betting odds of 8/5 but we wouldn’t be surprised to see his teammate Kvyat in the points either which is available at the same price.
Long Shot of the Weekend
It has been said that one man’s loss is another man’s gain and that can probably be applied to Alexander Albon who has performed well since his promotion to the senior team in place of Gasly. While his qualifying last time out in Russia will be of disappointment to the Thai driver, his response in the race was good. Achieving fifth after starting in the pitlane was probably the best he could hope for and, in our opinion, he was unlucky to not win driver of the day. He will be hoping to back that up with a strong performance at Suzuka and while a podium may prove difficult it’s not impossible, especially if the weather plays a part. So as our long shot this week we’re backing him to achieve exactly that at F1 odds of 15/2. He’s available at 80/1 to win if you’re looking to make a real punt.
Other Japanese Grand Prix Bets of Interest
As previously stated, we think that whoever starts on pole will go on and win the race. While qualifying itself is likely to be close, the driver who comes out on top should be favourite. If the threat of rain comes to fruition and the race were to start as normal, any driver on the dirty side of the grid will also be at a disadvantage. At Hockenheim this year a similar circumstance saw Verstappen go backwards at the start from second on the grid. Being on pole would also enable that driver to control the pace of the race in that circumstance which makes driving in those conditions significantly easier. We feel this F1 bet, which is available at odds of ⅔, isn’t bad value and may be worth a look.
We were considering making this bet the value bet for this week, but we’re going with it here instead. Verstappen will definitely be looking for at least a podium here, not only for Honda, but also as an encouragement for the Red Bull team. While it is clear they have stopped any major developments for this year's car in preparation for 2020, they will be disappointed with only one podium since the summer break. The Dutchman has an excellent record around Suzuka with a points finish in his first year in F1 with Toro Rosso, followed by three successive podiums in the last three years at Red Bull. We think he’ll manage to make it four in a row here and you can get this at F1 betting odds of 5/4.
The Japanese GP F1 Betting Tips and Predictions
Here are all of 21.co.uk’s F1 tips for the Japanese Grand Prix.
|Fastest Qualifier||Lewis Hamilton||6/5|
|Race Winner||Lewis Hamilton||10/11|
|Top 10 Finish||Pierre Gasly||8/5|
|Podium Position||Alexander Albon||15/2|
|Grid Position of Winner||Pole Position||2/3|
|Podium Position||Max Verstappen||5/4|
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*All odds from our online sportsbook correct at the time of writing.
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